What if you could fast-forward 13 years and see what Earth’s climate will feel like in 2040? You may not have to wait — that future could arrive next year.
NOAA has declared a 90% chance of a “very strong” El Niño, and forecast models now point to the most powerful event ever recorded. Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather calculates a 95% probability that 2027 will smash the global heat record, with temperatures running 3.00°F to 3.33°F above the preindustrial average (Gizmodo).
At the high end, next year could temporarily leap the planet forward by roughly 13 years on the current warming curve. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are projected to peak around 7.2°F above average this December — obliterating the previous record. And while 2028 should cool as El Niño fades, Hausfather warns that human emissions are quietly adding “a permanent El Niño worth of heat to the climate system each decade.”
The staircase is climbing faster than the models expected. Read the full report to see what 2027 has in store.
Here is the July Berkley Earth data: https://berkeleyearth.org/july-2026-temperature-update/
More background from the Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/08/13/record-el-nio-could-fast-forward-planets-temperature-by-decade/
Ron's Musings 